Fire Umbra RangerTier 3
at Ascent Boston
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.4% | 15 | 5-10-0 | 33.3% | 36.8% | 44.0% | -2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 11.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.7% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.3% | 8 | 3-3-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +1.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +3.6 |
| Fire Exia | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -13.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 76.6% | +25.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.3% | +5.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Water Fractal | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -4.9 |
| Water Genbu | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -25.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Kongming | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Exia Jin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Wind Ciel | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nightmare Coil | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mindbreak Bullet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manaflare Barrage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |